MyDD :: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38%

Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38%

by MissVA, Sat May 17, 2008 at 05:55:50 PM EST

Obama is rock solid in Minnesota. Obama will have nothing to worry about in MN.
Even with Pawlenty on their ticket.

''A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the state's registered voters. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the Arizona senator 49 percent to 40 percent''.

The republicans said this week they will target MN in their strategy this fall.
Even with their convention - it is very safe for Obama.

There is a strong trend now and you can see that in Oregon.
Where Obama does exceedingly well in states that have strong German/Nordic roots.

Here is hoping the Obama surge in MN can translate as coattails for Franken's bid for the senate. He is slipping in the polls as of late. www.alfranken.com/

http://www.startribune.com/politics/nati onal/president/19043139.html?location_re fer=Art

Update [2008-5-17 18:46:16 by MissVA]: Gore Vidal: ''I knew JFK, says Gore Vidal, and believe me Obama’s the better leader'' http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/tv_and_radio/article3952774.ece

Tags: Obama, Minnesota, Poll (all tags)

Permalink :: 54 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I like to call MN, MI, WI and IL the blue eyepatch...we states who didn't vote for Bush and won't vote for McCain either. Iowa can also be included, as Bush only won it by a slim margin in 2004 and I think it's in the tank for dems this year with a little bit of work.

John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.

by terra on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:02:39 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Arrrrrr.

Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.

by mistersite on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

arrr indeed.. been a hell of a long time since Mn voted R

by notedgeways on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:46:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BLOWOUT !! (none / 0)

This is an OVERWHELMING BLOWOUT, when you consider the vote in 2000, 2004!!

► in 2004, Kerry won by 3.48 percent

► in 2000, Gore won by 2.41 percent

13 points is a HUGE blanking blowout! ☺☺☺

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:53:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

P.S. - ROLL TIDE, ROLL !! (none / 0)

"McSame: He's Constipated and Ready to GO!

by Al Rodgers on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:57:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

The future is looking very bright indeed!

by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:08:39 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I'm not worried about MN, MI, WI or, of course, WI.

All look good for Obama, and most look good for downticket Dems.

by DeskHack on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:09:26 PM EST

MI will need a little work (none / 0)

by RandyMI on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:23:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MI will need a little work (none / 0)

But Obama won't have to work as hard for MN and WI as Kerry and Gore did in those states, which will buy Obama more time in MI and FL.

by Brad G on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

WI = IL

by DeskHack on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:09:39 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I would hope so...

I would be more worried about Ohio, Florida etc...

Obama isn't likely to get anything below the Mason-Dixon line...so he had better hold the Midwest, and make some kind of progress in the west...

In any case it's gonna be another squeaker...with McCain having a slight advantage right now...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:10:36 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

Disagree.

Obama isn't likely to get anything below the Mason-Dixon line...

For the first time in a generation, Republicans will have to put work in to win parts of the south they've taken for granted for a long, long time.

This is going to be a sweet election. I'm not concerned about McCain.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

He is way behind in the polls here in Virginia and in Florida...probably his only real pick up opportunities...

KY, LA, AR, MS, AL, SC, NC, TN are all going to be easy McCain victories...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

I've got no clue on which ones he will take, but VA, NC, and MS are possibilities. Once half of our party acknowledges our nominee, we'll be able to start taking realistic appraisals of our chances across the country.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:20:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

I admire your faith...but realistically...which is how this needs to be viewed, Obama's chances down here are slim to none...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Regardless of his chances, part of the 50-state strategy means contesting every state, so the election doesn't hinge on Florida and Ohio over and over again. We don't need to sweep the South to win in November. We just need 270.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:32:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (2.00 / 1)

For winning a state? Sure. Though I think VA and NC are going to be in play, it's difficult envisioning Obama taking AL or GA.

But what he will do is increase African-American turnout to previously unseen points - which might not affect a winner-take-all state, but may affect winner-take-all Congressional districts. That means the RNCC has to play defense in a lot of places they didn't have to before - increasing the likelihood of our retaining or increasing our majority in the House.

Join the Matthew 25 Network and help Democrats win the next generation of evangelicals.

by mistersite on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:39:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Also, it may force McCain and other Republicans to spend time in places like VA, NC, SC, etc. rather than in MI, OH, FL, etc. if Obama can run competitively in those southern states.

by Brad G on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:48:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Why?

by Terrance Manley on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:46:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Realistically VA and FL were the only two states where Obama might have had a shot...

The last poll I saw had him losing VA by a wide margin..and the same in Florida...

Bluntly, Obama cannot get enough African American support down here to overcome his lack of appeal to working class whites...

And the Republicans put up the perfect candidate to keep him from getting them...

Combine that with McCain's appeal in states like New Hampshire, West Virgina etc....it's gonna be a very tough row to hoe for Obama

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:51:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your "realism" (2.00 / 0)

is beginning to sound like concern trolling. You've made up your mind that Obama doesn't have a chance in the South, and almost every post continues to tout McCain as a formiddable opponent. Add to that the whinging about "working class whites", and it's pretty clear you're going to keep singing the same song, regardless of what the results on the ground show.

Not taking the bait.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:53:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your "realism" (none / 0)

Then don't respond...

See how easy that is....

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't worry about me; (none / 0)

you've got enough to worry about with Obama, what with McCain being the "perfect candidate" :^)

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't worry about me; (none / 0)

Gosh...guess you did take the bait after all...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah. (none / 0)

Playing with trolls is half of why I visit MyDD anyway.

Must be killer knowing Obama's going to be the nominee.

should we go outside? / should we break some bread? / are you'nterested?

by Firewall on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Killer?...No...it's politics... (none / 0)

Disappointing...yes...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:16:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

http://www.pollster.com/08-VA-Pres-GE-Mv O.php

Virginia is competitive. With the combined forces of Mark Warner, Webb, and Kaine, VA is a prime pick-up opportunity. As was pointed out, even a loss in VA, if it means the GOP is spending money defending a "safe" state, opens up other poaching opportunities.

The south is (and will be for the foreseeable future) GOP country. The only state that changes with Clinton on the ticket is Arkansas--but she easily loses in VA to McCain in that scenario.

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."

by AK Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:40:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Rasmussen has him within 3pts in VA, sounds like the MOE to me. Add maybe Senator Webb into the ticket and its in play.

The trick is to get the GOP to fight for every state. After the special elections so far they can take nothing for granted anymore. With Hillary all we will get is the same old 50 + 1 strategy. New thinking for a new electorate, and a new campaign.

"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"

by xenontab on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:39:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Name a state in the South Obama will take (none / 0)

Webb isn't as popular here as he should be...unfortunately...

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:52:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Way behind in VA? (none / 0)

The most recent Rasmussen poll (5/8) shows him down by 3.

by Brad G on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=2660437f-ce13-4e08-be35-132ed4 a83f54

SUSA has it 52/44 McCain as of a month ago. That's not that bad, and remember that Mark Warner is going to absolutely destroy that Senate race. That will help Senator Obama, reverse-coattails I think.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/virginia/election_2008 _virginia_presidential_election

Rassmussen has it 47/44 McCain. That's within the MOE.

Virginia is absolutely doable.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:21:18 PM EST

My gut (none / 0)

I think traditional blue states that got a little purple or even slightly red (Iowa) will be deep blue in November. And this will spell troube for downballot Republicans in these states.

by RandyMI on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:22:19 PM EST

Re: MN - better be carried by Dem (none / 0)

If B. Clinton twice, Gore & Kerry all carried MN & WI - its already a given that Obama better carry these states.

These states are minimum requirements to even be competitive for any democrat.

Its states like Ohio, Florida, PA,NH & MO that will decide if Obama is another Kerry,Gore or if he is a winner like Bill Clinton

by labanman on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:27:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Also worth pointing out... (2.00 / 0)

Hillary is solidly ahead of McCain in Minnesota too...

49-40

by SaveElmer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:26:13 PM EST

Re: Also worth pointing out... (none / 0)

Yup,

And Hillary is winning over McCain OH,FL,AR,MO,PA -

these are the states that matter.

Any dem who cannot even carry MN would lose by a landslide in Nov.

by labanman on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also worth pointing out... (none / 0)

Minnesota:

2004 47.6% 51.1% 0.0%
2000 45.5 47.9 5.2

Wisconsin:
2004 49.3% 49.7% 0.0%
2000 47.6 47.8 3.6

Minnesota and Wisconsin are the two most under-talked swing-states in the United States. There's a reason the Republican National Convention is in that area this year, just as ours is in Colorado.

Wisconsin is a state we nearly lost twice.

As I've talked about. If we continue playing the game of defending our base and trying for Ohio and Florida, we're going to lose.

We need to go on the offense and everywhere we can conceivably do so.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:32:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's in the article :P. (none / 0)

''A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll found that Barack Obama leads John McCain 51 percent to 38 percent among the state's registered voters. Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the Arizona senator 49 percent to 40 percent''.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:29:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Excuse me, in the diary. (none / 0)

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also worth pointing out... (none / 0)

Yes of course. Forgot that!

Obama/Warner 2008

by MissVA on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:30:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (2.00 / 1)

Franken needs to do 3 things. One, tie Coleman to Bush. Two, tie Coleman to Bush. Three, tie Coleman to Bush.

Definition of a republican moderate---someone who want's only 50 years in Iraq.

by pollbuster on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:35:20 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Al Franken is a terrible candidate, barely distinguishable from Coleman. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer for Senate!

by John Seal on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:36:53 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Yep. That tax question really is taking the steam out of his campaign. Obama's coattails may be a help in this state. But seriously wasn't there anyone better than Franklen for this slot?

"You might well think that. I couldn't possibly comment"

by xenontab on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I'm a fan of Franken's comedy but I know nothing about his politics other than the fact that he's a Democrat.

The fact that you guys are saying he's similar to Coleman has me worried. Is he running as some center-right Democrat or something?

by Homebrewer on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's Hillary's argument though (none / 0)

I think she would concede that Obama is stronger than her in blue states with a heavily anti-Washington mindset such as MN, WA, OR; however, she would also win those states and Obama does not get any extra electoral college votes for defeating McCain by a larger margin than the margin with which she would defeat McCain.

By contrast, in states that do not have the same anti-Washington mindset such as Arkansas and West Virginia, she would defeat McCain while Obama would have no chance in such states.

If only we could have combined the respective talents of Hillary and Obama into one candidate (e.g. Mark Warner), just think of the landslide that would ensue.....

by Blazers Edge on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:39:19 PM EST

You and your facts! (none / 0)

You think you're so special!

Rec'd

by Slim Tyranny on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:39:37 PM EST

Wisconsin (none / 0)

is not a gimme from either candidate. Rasmussen's recent poll has both of them down four to McCain though Obama generally has polled better than Hillary in that state. Obama was actually able to get votes from white rural voters in that state against Hillary, so I think he'll pull it out in the end. She'd probably pull it out as well if she's the nominee as Obama or Feingold could probably give her some insurgent cred.

We've been screwed by the state party in Michigan though; we'll need a million man and woman march out of Detroit to keep Michigan blue. Kwame Kirkpatrick isn't going to be able to provide any help this time around.

by Blazers Edge on Sat May 17, 2008 at 06:47:52 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

McCain signs are all over South GA already and the bumperstickers are now popping up on the SUV's and Lexus's. I only see Obama/Clinton stickers in Atlanta and Athens. This has been true in every election since I moved here in 1998 and we have seen how those races have gone. Obama will get a big win in ATL but still lose the state, same as Kerry.

by rossinatl on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:04:48 PM EST

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

Clinton won Georgia. It's too early to tell what will happen in November.

Commissar: Canadian Gal; Proletariat Policemen: ragekage, Lord Hadrian. "For the Proletariat!"

by Lord Hadrian on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I don't think we can use Clinton to prove anything. There's no way to figure out what effect Perot had.

John McCain hates terrorists, except the ones that hate women. Those are just swell.

by terra on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

In today's environment, Bill Clinton could not win Georgia. There was a time when Georgia hadn't elected a Republican Governor since Reconstruction--now, lowly Sonny Perdue has won twice, Saxby Chambliss turned a man who lost three limbs in Vietnam into some kind of Bin Laden sympathizer to win a senate seat, and Johnny Isaakson (a do-nothing Senator if ever there was one) completes the Republican Gov/Sen/Sen troika.

Dark days indeed for Georgia (my home state).

"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."

by AK Democrat on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (none / 0)

I'll start getting excited when he shows similar strength in Michigan and Wisconsin... and what the hell, can we get some Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania polls, please?

by unionfield on Sat May 17, 2008 at 07:31:15 PM EST

Quinnipiac (none / 0)

had Obama up 9 in Pennsylvania the week after the primary.

They also had Obama down only 1 in both Ohio and Florida the same day

and SUSA had Obama down by 3 in Ohio at the height of the Wright controversy.

and Ras was the only polling firm to show Obama trailing in Wisconsin. FWIW, Rasmussen had Kerry down 10 in Wisconsin as late as October.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Sat May 17, 2008 at 08:05:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Minnesota: Obama 51% McCain 38% (2.00 / 0)

I'm starting to modify my opinion that Obama is going to have a tough time winning in November. The MS result was mind blowing on top of the previous two all in districts gerrymandered for years to be solid Republican. Once McSame comes under the spotlight and has to start articulating his positions on the tax cuts, reforming healthcare, the environment, soldiering on in Iraq, etc. etc. he's going to look very shaky. I was very impressed how Obama hit the ball back over Bush/McCain's Hitler appeasement analogy, the press helped him of course, but he made them looks small minded and silly. You can tell his bounceback worked by the level of hysteria from right wing opeds.

by ottovbvs on Sat May 17, 2008 at 08:05:08 PM EST

In Washington Obama over McCain by 11 % (none / 0)

McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.

by Lefty Coaster on Sat May 17, 2008 at 08:08:21 PM EST

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